The Holy Grail Is A Process Not A Strategy

"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—I took the one less traveled by,"

Jun 29, 2025

∙ Paid

Important: There is no guarantee that ATS strategies will have the same performance in the future. I use backtests and forward tests to compare historical strategy performance. Backtests are based on historical data, not real-time data so the results shared are hypothetical, not real. Trading futures is extremely risky. You should only use risk capital to fund live futures accounts and if you do trade live, be prepared to lose your entire account. There are no guarantees that any performance you see here will continue in the future. I recommend using ATS strategies in simulated trading until you/we find the holy grail of trade strategy.

For links to all strategies click here

"**The Road Not Taken**" by Robert Frost, first published in the August 1915 issue of the *Atlantic Monthly*.

It’s been almost nine months since I posted an update with an overview of:

where we’ve come from,
where we are now; and,
where we’re going to from here.

I think it’s time for another because I’ve made some major revelations about our goal, which is finding the holy grail of automated trading strategies. And what I’ve discovered over these last four years is that the final leg of our journey must be done alone. Before explaining what I mean by this, first let me review how far we’ve come. Here’s a list of past updates to help with that task. A review of these updates might be helpful to anyone who’s just joining us.

ATS also published many posts/strategies over the last nine months. Here are a few of my favorites:

So that’s where we were. Now let’s take a look at where we are now.

Where are we now?

In Q3 of 2024 (one year ago), I made a critical change to the forward test process by creating separate sim accounts for each strategy variation — tedious, but well worth the effort. Prior to that date, all variations rolled up into the same strategy, which was problematic for analysis. This all seems fairly obvious now, but hindsight is 20/20.

Just to make sure we're on the same page, a "strategy" is the command structure, but that command structure has many different "variations". Those variations can pertain to any instrument for any chart. It may involve a different set of parameters or time filters. It may calculate on bar close or on each tick. It may have dynamic position sizing or trade the same size every trade. Each of these variations can be applied to the same strategy. Those strategies that perform well across variations are considered stronger or more robust.

The Q3 2025 Portfolio (scroll to the bottom of page for the full list) is the best portfolio yet—it made $56K last week (Week 1 of Q3). I know I say this every quarter, but this time I have the benefit of the Q2 2025 Forward Test as well as 200+ Incubator strategies that I run every day.

For anyone new to automated trading, the difference between a backtest and a forward test is that a forward test does not rely on historical data or the simulation of that data, which is riddled with errors. Instead, I’m running all strategies on simulated accounts using live data.

Now, it’s time for another big change. It’s the road less traveled, but I think it will make all the difference in the world.

Where Are We Going From Here: The Golden Age of Automated Trading

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win." — Sun Tzu

As a non-coding trader, I feel as though we've entered the golden age of automated trading. Can you imagine what Jesse Livermore, Richard Wyckoff or Munehisa Honma would have done with AI? And it keeps getting better every day. At this rate, I can hardly imagine where we'll be in six months, let alone a year.

When I first started this I didn't know if I would ever find the holy grail. Over the years, I've created different definitions of what the holy grail might be (static, moving target, an ensemble), but now I think the holy grail is more about the process to find a new variation than the strategy itself. I’ll explain exactly what I mean by this in a moment, but first, I need to address the elephant in the room: April's market massacre.

The Q2 2025 portfolio ended the quarter down ~$25K. That’s not bad considering the volatility in the marketplace, but it’s a far cry from the +$300K I was expecting.

What happened?

April's tariff announcement created market conditions not seen since the 1940s. It was a once-in-80-years event. But here's what made it worse, and what led to my biggest revelation yet. When I analyzed the carnage, I discovered something shocking: shared strategies lost 3x more than private ones during the tariff shock.

Bad luck or plain market physics?

The Alpha Erosion Reality

I asked OpenAI 03 Pro, Gemini 2.5 and Claude Opus 4 AI for an analysis based on a full year of trade data, release dates and subscription stats—all three came to the same conclusion: The crowding effect is real. The data tells the full story:

Crowded strategies lost 5.6x more during volatility spikes
Low-frequency strategies (<5 trades/month) resist crowding
The more subscribers, the faster the edge disappeared
Most unshared variations continued performing well, shared variations deteriorate within weeks
Private edges compound; public edges decay

When everyone trades the same signals, we create our own volatility.

This is why institutions NEVER share their best strategies (you were right Z).

This isn’t the first time I’ve come to this revelation, but I thought I could get around this ‘reality’ by only sharing trend-based strategies as opposed to strategies based on anomalous activity. I had also convinced myself that futures (especially NQ) were too liquid to be impacted by the crowding out effect. But the data clearly shows that to be false. As it stands, the only strategies that escaped this effect were low trade count strategies.

What does this revelation mean for out hunt?

It means that there are many ‘holy grails’, but they cannot be run in mass. This distinction is more important than any other. If we all try to spot this animal at the same time, it disappears. While I wouldn’t trade the sacrifice made over the last four years for anything, continuing on this same path will not get us there.

April wasn't just about tariffs. It was about discovering that extreme events exposed a fundamental flaw in how I've been operating. We weren't just fighting the market—we were fighting each other.

What Does This Mean Going Forward

Ultimately, this means that the holy grail can only be shared as a process to find a variation, not a strategy. It’s a nuanced change, but the implications are huge.

So going forward I’m moving away from sharing Forward Test strategy parameters with everyone. Instead, I’ll share two proven strategies (per subscriber) from the Q3 Forward Test or Incubator. I’ll also provide individual alerts for those strategies (from my RL model) that can't be diluted.

Everyone will still have access to all 100+ strategies published through ATS, but not the specific strategy variations used in the quarterly forward test.

If you’re interested in this new service, here's how it works:

You'll review Q3 Forward Test and Incubator strategies (see below)
You’ll select your top 5 strategies.
Send me the strategies along with a SHORT overview of your trading style, risk tolerance, etc.
I will personally assign you two strategies from your choices
- Based on current availability
- Optimized for non-competition with other subscribers

Important: Some strategies will be claimed faster than others. First-come, first-served. Once a strategy reaches its maximum allocation (2-3 people), it's off the table.

The 3-Month Transformation

Phase 1: Foundation (Month 1)

Receive your first assigned strategy from your top 5 picks
Start forward testing your strategies
I will send you strategy specific trade alerts. The alerts are based on historical trade performance that have been fed into an RL model. I can’t tell you how regular these alerts will be. It depends on the model and the strategy.

Phase 2: Evolution (Month 2)

Receive your second assigned strategy from your top 5 picks
Master parameter optimization
Develop market/timeframe adaptations
Build your personal edge

Phase 3: Mastery (Month 3)

Continue to monitor forward test performance
Advanced optimization methods
Develop your own variations
Create with your own holy grail

It is important to note that this entire process is driven by you. I consider this to be an added service. If you don’t want to take this path for various reasons (time, etc), no worries. The subscription will continue on as usual.

Remember: You're not just choosing a strategy—you're claiming your piece of alpha that no one else can crowd out. This approach allows for:

Exclusive Edge: Your strategies won't compete with others
Sustainable Alpha: Learn to create, not just copy
Direct Alerts: When your assigned strategy fires, I’ll send you an alert

Due to the additional time required for personalized development, I can only accept a limited number of people into this new model.

Q & A:

I’m anticipating many questions about this new approach. This is my attempt to get ahead of some of them. Feel free to send any questions that aren’t on this list my way.

Q: So you’re saying you’ve found the holy grail? A: No, but I’ve shared some highly profitable strategies that performed exceptionally well before they were shared with everyone. I have many more strategies that are performing well. What I’ve found is a process for finding high performing strategy variations. It’s the process I’m referring to as the holy grail, not the strategy.
Q: How long will you be doing this? A: I’m not sure. Like everything else, we’ll see how it goes. I never fail, I either succeed or learn.
Q: What if all 5 strategies are already taken? A: I will select a strategy for you. Early requests/senior subscribers get first pick.
Q: Can I get more information about Forward Tested Strategies? A: No.
Q: Can you tell me more about the strategy alerts? A: Strategy alerts come from an RL model I created. It tells me which strategies have the highest probability of being profitable on the following day. The model uses several methods that I will share with you in upcoming posts.
Q: Are the strategies you assign guaranteed to work? A: Absolutely not. This is about probabilities, not miracles. None of us can predict the future, but we can put the odds on our side.
Q: When will you contact me to start the process? A: This is it. It’s up to you to drive this if it’s something you want to do.
Q: Do I have to participate in this program? A: Of course not. This is an addition to the subscription offering. Everything will continue as usual except for sharing strategy parameters from the forward test. You can also just use the Q3 Forward Test and Incubator strategies listed below as a guide. Run your own backtests on various instruments and time frames to find a few variations to run yourself.
Q: Can I trade multiple strategies? A: You can forward test as many strategies as you want. This has nothing to do with how many strategies you can forward test. The more the better in my opinion.
Q: Will you release which strategies are still available? A: No.
Q: Can you help me to develop my own strategy? A: It depends on the strategy, but the process will be the same.
Q: Why does the process take 3 months? A: It takes time to forward test strategies.
Q: Is this just a way to charge more? A: Actually, this requires significantly more of my time per subscriber, which is why I'm limiting enrollment. It's about choosing the road less traveled: quality over quantity.
Q: Why not just start an alert service? A: I've had several people ask me to do an alert service. An alert service without a strategy assignment puts us in the same place. While it would be more lucrative for ATS, it wouldn't help either of us find the holy grail. This model incorporates the alert service into the subscription, but only for your assigned strategies.
Q: Can I see your trade files? A: That's an emphatic no. I'm happy to share strategies with everyone, but asking for my trade data is like asking me to share underwear. I'll pass on that one.

The Road Less Traveled

I could have kept quiet and continued collecting subscriptions while watching shared strategies decay. Instead, I'm choosing to help fewer people succeed rather than many people fail collectively.

April's disaster wasn't just about losing money—it was about discovering a better way forward. We're evolving beyond the limitations of shared strategies.

The good news: the holy grail exists. Ironically, it’s a bunch of islands where we must each pitch a tent of our own. It's personal, not public. It’s a process, not any one strategy. My hope is that you refine your own process and share it with others in your family, community, church families, etc. As much as I love AI, I think the next five years are going to be challenging to the economy and job market as digital labor lowers the price of human labor. It’s up to you/us to get ready for what’s coming and I truly believe this is one way (among many) to do it.

Contact Email: AutomatedTradingStrategies@protonmail.com.

P.S. I've hired someone to assist with this effort, but it will take time to establish a workflow—please give me at least one week to respond.

Subscribers, see below for Q3 2025 Forward Test and Incubator: