Important: There is no guarantee that ATS strategies will have the same performance in the future. Backtests are based on historical data and are hypothetical, not real. Forward tests use live data in a simulated account. Any success I have with live trading is untypical. Trading futures is extremely risky — you should only use risk capital and be prepared to lose your entire account. I recommend using ATS strategies in simulated trading until you/we find the holy grail of trade strategy. This is strictly for learning purposes.
We’re not just developing strategies — we’re on a quest for the holy grail of automated trading. Since 2021, I’ve documented every step of that hunt so you can see exactly what works, what fails, and what’s worth forward testing.
📌 Questions? Check the FAQs below or email me directly at AutomatedTradingStrategies@protonmail.com.
📌 Want to explore? Click the button below for links to all published strategies.
Questions answered below:
Who is this for?
What makes ATS different?
Do you guarantee profits?
Where can I find ATS strategies for download?
What are “unpublished” strategies?
What’s the first thing I should do once I sign up?
How do I start my own forward test?
Which strategies are the best?
Are your strategies compatible with NT7?
What if the strategy isn’t working?
Why do you only provide 1-year backtests?
Do you have strategies to pass funded trader programs?
Do your strategies work on cryptocurrencies?
What is overfitting and how do you handle it?
What’s the difference between AI and normal strategies?
Why are your strategies too simple or too complex?
Why give away poor performers?
Are markets rigged?
Why use profit factor instead of payoff ratio?
Why did you switch to NT8?
How can I learn to create automated strategies?
What’s the difference between Total Investment & Reinvestment?
Which strategy for $10k?
Do your strategies work with Renko?
What is slippage?
How do you spot choppy sessions?
Can you teach me how to trade?
What’s your favorite platform?
What can market physics teach us?
Which futures contracts should I use?
Is this a good time to invest?
1. Who is this for?
If you’re a trader, quant, portfolio manager, math/physics enthusiast, or simply curious about the inner workings of automated trading strategies, this is for you.
You don’t need coding skills —just curiosity and the willingness to experiment. My readers range from 20-year veterans to brand-new traders who want to understand how real strategies are developed, tested, and refined.
“I feel like I have been looking for this for a long time. A no-nonsense but well thought out and practical approach to systematic trading.” – Andrew
2. What makes ATS different?
Most trading content is either hype or generic. I’ve been trading for 20+ years and publishing ATS since January 2021.
Every strategy here is fully transparent —subscribers see the code for every strategy I release.
“I like how your work is very thorough, organized and transparent, and I share your passion with automated trading.” – Shiva
3. Do you guarantee profits?
No. Markets change, and no strategy works forever.
What I do guarantee is that you’ll get real strategies, real code, and real forward test performance so you can decide what’s worth running in your own simulated accounts.
4. Where can I find ATS strategies for download?
Click here for a list of links to all published strategies. Downloads are located at the bottom of each strategy description.
5. What are “unpublished” strategies?
Certain strategies were never published (e.g., 83c). Others were published and then unpublished after running them in the forward test (e.g., 77c, 4c, 44b). If you don’t see the strategy on the strategy description page, it is not available for download.
These strategies are only available to founders. I will notify all subscribers before removing a strategy from the subscription.
Also, note: Strategies 1 and 5 — while free — perform quite well, especially for lower-frequency minute bars.
6. What’s the first thing I should do once I sign up?
Read the FAQs (you’re doing that now).
Review the Strategy Description page (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/ats-strategies).
Pick a strategy and start your own forward test using live data on a simulated account.
You don’t have to copy my exact process —I started with just 10 strategies and grew from there. The first quarter is the hardest, but it gets easier as you go.
7. How do I start my own forward test?
One thing that differentiates ATS from other newsletters is that I actually test ATS strategies using live data. The account is simulated, but the data is real-time.
You can read more about forward test updates in the Mudder Report, and subscribers can access a step-by-step tutorial here: Forward Test Update (April 11, 2024) (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/forward-test-update).
8. Which strategies are the best?
That’s hard to say — it changes as we learn more about performance and improve documentation.
9. Are your strategies compatible with NT7?
No. NinjaTrader 8 indicators and strategies are not necessarily compatible with NinjaTrader 7.
10. What if the strategy isn’t working?
If you have difficulties duplicating performance results, try the following:
Clear the cache:
Shut down NinjaTrader.
Go to Documents\NinjaTrader 8\db\ directory.
Rename or move the folders:
cache,day,minute,tick.Relaunch NinjaTrader and connect only to your NinjaTrader connection.
Run the backtests. (https://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/forum/ninjatrader-8/strategy-development/1203593-backtest-results-very-inconsistent-retesting-same-variables-different-results)
Use the same session template: CME US Index Futures ETH in Trading Hours. (https://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/forum/ninjatrader-7/platform-technical-support/89018-different-results-for-backtests-with-same-parameters)
Use US date format: Month-Day-Year.
If strategy has embedded data series: Update to the current front month. Tutorial here: How To Update A Strategy To The Current Front Month In NT8 Using The Strategy Builder (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/update-strategy-front-month).
If you’re still having difficulty, email me at AutomatedTradingStrategies@protonmail.com with an inline screenshot of your strategy analyzer results.
11. Why do you only provide 1-year backtests?
Short answer: I don’t trust long-term backtest data as much.
Long answer: Historical data quality declines the further back you go, and even when results look better in the past, I can’t rely on them. Standard backtests use historical data that’s inherently flawed, and long-dated backtests can exacerbate that issue.
I value recent performance over older performance —it’s more relevant to current market rhythms. Focusing on recent intraday data (e.g., last 60 days) keeps strategies tuned to current conditions while minimizing overfitting risk.
This approach is also supported by Markov state analysis, which weights the most recent states higher when working with large data sets.
12. Do you have strategies to pass funded trader programs?
You’re in luck —I’ve started a series called Using AI to Pass Funded Trader Evaluations (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/ai-funded-trader-series).
That said, if your only goal is to pass a funded program, ATS might not be for you. Automated strategies require more latitude than most funded programs allow. Restrictions make an already difficult task harder. My advice: learn to trade manually first.
13. Do your strategies work on cryptocurrencies?
Sometimes. At one point, Strategies 24 and 26 showed promise with crypto. Currently, I’m testing BTC futures on several strategies in the ATS Forward Test. More details: Do ATS strategies work on cryptocurrencies? (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/crypto-strategies).
14. What is overfitting and how do you handle it?
Overfitting happens when a strategy is too closely tailored to past data, making it weak in live markets.
I’ve written in detail here: Overfitting: What is it and what can we do about it? (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/overfitting) and What Are We Doing To Ensure Backtest Accuracy? (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/backtest-accuracy).
The best way to avoid overfitting? Focus on finding the right conditions for the regime, not the entire data set. Use backtests as a guidepost and then start forward testing on live data using multiple variations of the strategy.
15. What’s the difference between AI and normal strategies?
AI Strategies are created with the help of generative AI (e.g., AI Strategy 4, AI Strategy 9). All other strategies are built by ATS directly (e.g., Strategy 3, Strategy 4).
AI Strategy 6 is not the same as Strategy 6. You will find a list of all AI strategies at the bottom of the Strategy Description page.
16. Why are your strategies too simple or too complex?
Some say they’re too complex, others say not complex enough. The aim is consistent performance, not complexity.
If you have questions about a strategy, reach out. I try to respond to every email/comment.
17. Why give away poor performers?
Strategies 1 and 5 are free because they’re intended as teaching tools to show you the process —but just because they are free, does not mean they are poor performers. They still perform quite well in the forward test, especially for lower-frequency minute bars.
18. Are markets rigged?
Not in the way most think. Retail traders have been working with “unfair” conditions for years. The best play is to identify and use the traps set by bigger players.
Read: Is The Market Rigged For Retail Traders? (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/rigged-market).
19. Why use profit factor instead of payoff ratio?
I use profit factor to measure the strength of ATS strategies because it tells us immediately if the strategy was profitable in aggregate:
Profit Factor = Gross Profit ÷ Gross Loss
Payoff Ratio = Average Winner ÷ Average Loser
While the payoff ratio tells you about the average trade, profit factor tells you about the total strategy. To know if a payoff ratio strategy is profitable, you’d still need to multiply it by the win rate.
Example:
Scenario 1: Payoff ratio = 0.92, Win rate = 63% → Losing per trade on average, but win rate high enough to be profitable overall.
Scenario 2: Payoff ratio = 11.36, Win rate = 12% → Huge winners, but low win rate, so profitability depends on frequency.
The “holy grail” would be a payoff ratio like 11.36 and a win rate of 63%.
20. Why did you switch to NT8?
Backtest accuracy was a major concern in NT7. NinjaTrader addressed this in NT8 with:
Standard Order Fill Resolution — Breaks each historical bar into 3 “virtual bars” for more realistic simulation.
High Order Fill Resolution — Allows adding a secondary bar series (e.g., tick or second data) for even more precise order fills.
These improvements reduce data “holes” and make backtests more representative of actual market behavior.
More details here: StrategyAnalyzer_OrderFillProcessing documentation (https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/en-us/?strategyanalyzer_orderfillprocess.htm).
21. How can I learn to create automated strategies?
Use the free daily training resources provided by NinjaTrader. They offer sessions covering platform basics, strategy building, and advanced topics.
I’m not affiliated with NinjaTrader — I just recommend starting with their official training and documentation.
22. What’s the difference between Total Investment & Reinvestment?
Total Investment —How much capital is required to run the strategy from start to finish.
Reinvestment —Using profits from trades to increase position size or capital over time.
Full explanation: Reinvestment Vs Total Investment (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/reinvestment-vs-total-investment).
23. Which strategy for $10k?
I don’t recommend any one strategy, but here’s a process:
Pick 5+ strategies based on profit factor (either ATS strategies or your own).
Run each in live simulation on a VPS for at least 3 months.
Fund each with the max historical drawdown + buffer.
Compare live performance to backtest results.
If results align, try it live on a micro contract — but be prepared for full account loss risk.
24. Do your strategies work with Renko?
Yes and no. They work well in backtests, but not so well in real life unless you have trending markets. Try using Renko on strategies that do well in trending markets.
25. What is slippage?
Slippage is when you receive a different fill price than expected, or miss trades entirely. Contrary to belief, it can be positive or negative.
Minimizing slippage:
Use limit orders instead of market orders.
Trade contracts with higher volume per tick.
Avoid illiquid or overly volatile conditions when possible.
26. How do you spot choppy sessions?
Choppy sessions often have long tails on candles.
A surfing analogy: In rough, choppy waves, the best movement is “tacking” — short, controlled back-and-forth motion.
In market terms: Use strategies with shorter targets, longer stops, and limit orders during these periods. The challenge is building an algorithm to detect them in real time —this is why we’re studying Hidden Markov Models (HMM) to help identify regime changes.
27. Can you teach me how to trade?
No, but I recommend reading:
Trading Is A Dark And Scary Forest (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/trading-is-a-dark-and-scary-forest)
We Are Treasure Hunters Searching For The Holy Grail Of Automated Trade Strategy (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/treasure-hunters)
Also, use NT8’s free educational content to learn platform capabilities and basic market structure —it’s a strong foundation for automated strategy work.
28. What’s your favorite platform?
My two favorite platforms are NinjaTrader 8 and QuantConnect.
I’ve written more about platform selection here.
29. What can market physics teach us?
Markets are driven by auction mechanics —price isn’t random.
An auction framework helps explain patterns, momentum, and reversals.
Full discussions:
What Can Auction Mechanics & Market Structure Tell Us About Trade Strategy? (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/auction-mechanics)
From Codebreaking to Market Mastery (https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/from-codebreaking-to-market-mastery)
30. Which futures contracts should I use?
It depends on your trading style and objectives. I like to start with NQ in the forward test. If NQ is successful, I’ll create additional variations using other instruments, data series, and time frames.
31. Is this a good time to invest?
There’s never a “perfect” time.
Think of it like surfing —the best waves often come in the middle of the storm. If you wait for calm seas, you might miss the opportunity entirely.
Final Word
I’ve been hunting for the holy grail of automated trading strategies for over two decades. Since 2021, I’ve documented every step here —the wins, the losses, and the lessons —-so you don’t have to start from scratch.
If you’ve read this far, you’re not just curious, you’re the kind of trader who values process over hype. That’s exactly the kind of person I built ATS for.
Paid subscribers get:
Access to all current strategies + full source code.
Strategy breakdowns, logic, and intended market conditions.
Member-only posts on market structure, psychology, and anomalies.
If you’re ready to get serious about forward testing, refining, and running profitable strategies, upgrade now and start your own forward test today.
The hunt is better together.
I'm sorry if I missed something obvious, but I cannot see anywhere I've looked -- including the source code of your strat #1 -- are your strategies applied to a single security, or a pool? Could you please either point me to the description of how the strategies are applied to the asset(s)?
Secondly, while back-testing is a reasonable tool, what I would LOVE to see is how the strategies worked when applied to a validation or -- better -- a test period. While I am relatively new to the data science world, I have come to understand that performance degrades from training to validation to test -- depending on the strength of an algorithm.
Lastly, I think it would be appropriate to report on percentage of gains vs absolute dollar amounts. I don't know what the basis is; so how can I assess the net gain performance?
Thanks in advance.
An article referenced under the question, "What is overfitting and what are you doing about it?," is locked behind a paywall. Does this article, "How Can You Tell If An Automated Trading Strategy Will Perform Well Over Time?," explain how Ninjatrader's Walk Forward optimization method is leveraged in ATS development?
Assuming some type of walk forward analysis is utilized, why compare the backtest results of strategies instead of the combined OOS walk forward series for each strategy?