We Found Some Champions

What To Expect From ATS In Q1 2025

Important: There is no guarantee that ATS strategies will have the same performance in the future. I use backtests and forward tests to compare historical strategy performance. Backtests are based on historical data, not real-time data so the results shared are hypothetical, not real. Forward tests are based on live data, however, they use a simulated account. Any success I have with live trading is untypical. Trading futures is extremely risky. You should only use risk capital to fund live futures accounts and if you do trade live, be prepared to lose your entire account. There are no guarantees that any performance you see here will continue in the future. This is for educational purposes only. I recommend using ATS strategies in simulated trading until you/we find the holy grail of trade strategy.

"There are years that ask questions and years that answer them."

— Zora Neale Hurston, Their Eyes Were Watching God

Four Years Later: From Holy Grail to Reality

Four years ago, on January 14, 2021, I embarked on what seemed like an impossible quest: creating the holy grail of automated trading strategies. Our benchmark criteria were ambitious, to say the least:

• Profit factor > 3 (At the time, this seemed as likely as finding a unicorn in your backyard)

• Annual drawdown < 3%

• Annual return on max drawdown > 500%

• Maximum daily net loss limited to $1,000

• Average daily profit > $1,000

• Annual trade count: 253-5,000 trades

While we didn't find a single strategy that could turn water into wine, we did something potentially more valuable: we built a portfolio of strategies that not only met but exceeded these criteria. And instead of just using the backtest, we validated with a forward test. Click on the link at the bottom of this post for a look at how the strategies in the Q1 2025 Forward Test portfolio performed over the last two quarters delivering:

• $84K profit, 3.57 profit factor in Q3 2024; and,

• $289K profit on 577 trades, 11.14 profit factor in Q4 2024.

Q1 2025 Forward Test Portfolio Composition

A key lesson from 2024: tracking individual strategy variations rather than aggregate performance was a game-changer. The current portfolio comprises 7 strategies with 19 variations, all trading on 30-minute charts or higher across a carefully selected basket of futures contracts.

Instrument selection reflects a strategic approach to market exposure:

Equity Index Futures

• ES (S&P 500 E-mini): Our core large-cap market benchmark

• NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini): Technology-weighted exposure

• YM (Mini Dow): Industrial-focused blue-chip exposure

• RTY (Russell 2000 E-mini): Small-cap market segment

• MNQ (Micro Nasdaq-100): Enables finer position sizing and risk management

Diversification Instruments

• HG (Copper): Often called "Dr. Copper" for its economic forecasting properties

• ZB (30-Year Treasury Bond): Provides fixed-income exposure and potential hedge against equity market stress

All timeframes are 30-minutes or higher—these intervals offer an optimal balance between noise reduction and opportunity capture. Shorter timeframes (5 min, 15 min) often generate excessive noise and trading costs, and the selected timeframes provide cleaner signals while still capturing significant market moves.

19 variations across 7 strategies provide robust diversification benefits:

• Parameter Diversity: Each variation uses slightly different entry/exit parameters, allowing us to capture similar edges under different market conditions

• Risk Management: Variations help spread risk across multiple approaches rather than relying on a single implementation

• Market Adaptation: Different variations may perform better in trending vs ranging markets, providing natural portfolio balance. I hope to get a better understanding for this with the use of an AI driven trading analyst I’m building.

This framework has proven especially valuable during various market conditions throughout 2024.

And we're starting 2025 with a bang—$27K profit in the first week of January. As they say in trading, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it sure beats the alternative. Scroll to the bottom for a screenshot of last week’s performance.

Important Announcements

1. Portfolio Strategy Changes

The seven strategies in the Q1 2025 Forward Test represent our cream of the crop. While we haven't tested all 90 published strategies, these are the current champions. These strategies will be removed from the ATS paid subscription on January 30. Don't worry—I'll continue sharing performance updates in the Mudder Report, but access to these specific strategies will be available only through a separate package. Please take a moment to download the Forward Test strategies before January ends.

2. New Pricing Structure

In response to community feedback, I’m adjusting pricing. Starting March 1, 2025, the paid subscription will be reduced to $255/month. (Annual subscription rates remain unchanged.)

3. Introducing Strategy 83c

Strategy 83 has been one of our crown jewels, created using high-performing entry and exit commands based on MAE, MFE, and ETD statistics. Its star variant, Strategy 83c (previously unpublished), has 8 variations in the Q1 2025 Forward Test and generated:

• Q4 2024: $55K profit

• First week of Q1 2025: $13K profit (almost half of total profits for the week)

Rather than auction this strategy, I’m offering it as a special reward to loyal subscribers. To receive Strategy 83c:

• You must be a paid subscriber for at least 30 days

• The last day to subscribe to receive Strategy83c is January 29, 2025

• Strategy83c will be emailed (not posted) directly to qualifying subscribers on February 28

Looking Ahead: The Next Frontier

The hard work in trading comes in the preparation. The actual process of trading, however, should be effortless.

– Jack Schwager

As we celebrate exceeding our original benchmarks, and because nothing in trading is written, we're setting our sights on new horizons as well. Stay tuned for these upcoming dates for Q1:

Key Posts and Dates

• January 14 - Post: The New Paradigm: Cash Flow Trading

• January 20 - Podcast 1 - Using Agentic Frameworks in Automated Trading Part 1

• January 25 - Post: Complex Systems Theory In Trading Strategy Behavior

• January 27 - Podcast 2 - Using Agentic Frameworks in Automated Trading Part 2

• January 29 - Strategy 83c cutoff date

• January 30 - Removing strategies in the Q1 2025 Portfolio from the paid ATS subscription plan. Strategies and updated parameters will be available as a package on March 1 for $10,149.

• February 3 - Podcast 3 - Using Agentic Frameworks in Automated Trading Part 3

• February 11 - Post: A Framework for LLM Based Automated Trading Information Systems

• February 19 - Post: The Impact of A Digital Workforce On Assets & The Cost of Labor

• February 28 - Email: Sending Strategy 83c to all qualifying subscribers

• March 1 - Lowering the price of a paid subscription to $239/month. There will be no change to the annual subscription.

Additional Q1 2025 Content

• Regular updates on Q1 2025 Forward Test

• Strategies 89 & 90 progress (including ML/continuous learning)

• Frequency optimization insights

• Agentic platform developments

• Incubator portfolio (targeted mid-February)

• A special announcement planned for March 5

Trading is a journey, not a destination. Here's to making 2025 our best year yet!

If you have any questions, start with the FAQs and if you still have questions, feel free to reach out directly at AutomatedTradingStrategies@protonmail.com.

See below for a link to the Q1 2025 Forward Test Portfolio as well as an overview of Week 1 performance results.