The Mudder Report: Weekly Update 11/7/2021 - 11/12/2021
In total, our predictions made $7,895 last week.
Risk Disclaimer: There is no guarantee that these strategies will have the same performance in the future. Some may perform worse and some may perform better. We use backtests to compare historical strategy performance, but there are no guarantees that this performance will continue in the future. Trading futures is extremely risky. If you trade futures live, be prepared to lose your entire account. We recommend using our strategies in simulated trading until you/we find the holy grail of trade strategy.
This is the third post in a new weekly series dedicated to tracking our automated strategies at the weekly level. You can read the first post here. You can also click here for links to all weekly reports. The original post provides an overview of our approach along with an explanation of the reporting structure.
Just like our annual updates that happen every two months, we’re looking for consistency at a more granular level. The goal of the series is to track strategies on a weekly basis to see if we can discover how to select the holy grail of trade strategy. It is based on the premise that the holy grail of automated trade strategy may not be static, but fluid or rather made up of multiple strategies. Our goal in developing the Mudder Report is to aid in the development of a few working theories for the holy grail of automated trade strategy, which we believe could be any one or more of the following:
static
a moving target (uses multiple strategies)
made up of multiple contracts using a static strategy
made up of multiple contracts using multiple strategies.
Our goal is not to predict or recommend what to trade in the following week. It’s always fun to try your luck on a simulated account, but if you use the weekly update to trade live, you will get burned.
Weekly update analysis
Last week was a rough week for our strategies — 35% had no trades, 35% were unprofitable, and only 24% were profitable. Based on the table below from the 10/31/2021 update, we ran strategies 4, 6, 7 and 8 last week.
We got the following results:
In total, our predictions made $7.9K last week, down from $23K in the prior week. Strategies 6 and 8 both had a bad week, but Strategies 4 and 7 made up for that. What this shows us, at least for now, is that the holy grail of trade strategy could be a moving target that toggles back and forth between several strategies. Perhaps the holy grail of trade strategy is a portfolio of strategies that changes from week to week based on observable short-term trends.
The table below provides an updated weekly chart for 11/7/2021 - 11/12/2021 and an overview of our actions for next week.