Mudder Report: Live Test Strategies & Q3 Forward Test Update
The 2024 Q3 Forward Test made $381K over the last two weeks on 1,525 trades.
Important: There is no guarantee that ATS strategies will have the same performance in the future. I use backtests and forward tests to compare historical strategy performance. Backtests are based on historical data, not real-time data so the results shared are hypothetical, not real. Forward tests are based on live data, however, they use a simulated account. Any success I have with live trading is untypical. Trading futures is extremely risky. You should only use risk capital to fund live futures accounts and if you do trade live, be prepared to lose your entire account. There are no guarantees that any performance you see here will continue in the future (good or bad)—that’s what makes the hunt for the holy grail so difficult. This is why the best way to trade is with a simulated account on live data. I recommend using ATS strategies in simulated trading until you/we find the holy grail of trade strategy.
A few weeks ago I published the results of the Live Test.
I won’t go into the results or the psychology behind running certain strategies in the Live Test since I did that in the update referenced above. In this post I want to review the actual strategies used in the Live Test. In particular, I’m going to review:
which strategies were used in each segment of the live test. In total, I updated the portfolio five times.
what changes were made to the Q3 Forward Test based on lessons learned from the Live Test.
which strategies are performing well in the first two weeks of the Q3 Forward Test based on these changes. In total, the Q3 Forward Test made $381K over the last two weeks. I’ve never seen numbers like this before, but I’ve made a lot of changes as well and we’ll review what those changes are below. Note: ATS Subscribers can find the Q3 Forward Test portfolio at the bottom of the Strategy Description page.
Now, let’s get into the strategies used in the Live Test.
Live Test Strategies
These are the strategies (strategy #, time series, instrument, parameters) I started with in the January/February time frame: